Man City v Sevilla - Wednesday 19:45, BT Sport 2

With these teams currently fighting for second in Group D Sevilla will surely be happy if they can take a point back from Manchester, while for the Premier League leaders anything less than a win will be a significant disappointment.

Spanish sides have won their last four trips to England but excluding the Big Two and then their Champions League record on these shores going back to the 2005/06 group stage is just W1-D7-L8, including failing to score on 11 occasions.

Man City warmed up for this game in style but Bournemouth are not of Champions League quality and they are still without Aguero, Silva and Kolarov for this match. City have won just three of their last 12 UCL matches, including one win and four defeats in their last six at home. Furthermore, since 2012/13 they are yet to keep a clean sheet in any of their 12 UCL home matches (W3-D4-L5) with eight of the matches having at least three goals (though Sevilla are weaker than most of those opponents).

Sevilla were poor in their defeat at Juventus but have since beaten Barcelona and while their position in the bottom half of La Liga highlights their struggles this term they are a dangerous opponent when on form. However, despite travelling to four of La Liga’s worst sides so far they have scored only twice and remain winless on the road this season with all four matches having fewer than three goals, as did their trip to Juventus when they managed just one attempt on goal.

Given this lack of goal threat and Vincent Kompany’s expected return to the heart of defence – City are yet to concede in the five matches he’s played a full 90 minutes this season – we should see fewer goals than in the Citizens previous UCL home games. City’s absences should also lead to a blunted attack and Under 2.5 Goals at 7/5 has every chance, as does Both Teams to Score – No at 5/4.

Sevilla’s struggles on the road this season might suggest City are value but the Andalusians have been very successful in Europe in recent years and have generally raised their game for their biggest matches in 2015 so we’ll stick to the goals markets.

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Recommendation: Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 7/5