Chelsea’s domestic woes continued at the weekend with a 3-1 loss to Liverpool, their third defeat in five at home, to increase the pressure on Jose Mourinho who knows failure in Europe really could spell the end. To highlight their current defensive frailties it was only the second time Liverpool had scored more than one goal in the league this season, and they’ve now conceded at least twice in four of their last five league matches.
Dynamo Kiev, meanwhile, recorded a comfortable victory on Saturday to make in nine wins out of 11 so far in the league and they lie second only on goal difference. No doubt they will be happy with a result similar to that of two weeks ago as they currently sit in second place in the group, one point above their opponents here.
Even with Chelsea’s current troubles the task at hand for Kiev is a difficult one as Ukrainian and Russian sides have a W1-D2-L16 record in England in the Champions League this century. On top of that, in the last ten years Chelsea have lost just one of their 31 home group matches while succeeding on 24 occasions. Furthermore, in the same time frame, the Ukrainian champions have a poor W2-D5-L9 record on their travels, losing by more than one goal six times. So ‘The Special One’s’ men look a decent price at 4/5 to win or for more value, given their defensive struggles, a home win and both teams to score at 14/5.
However, backing Chelsea to win any game at the moment is difficult so instead we think it’s safer to stick to the goals market. Since 2007/08, seven of the nine matches involving Russian and Ukrainian sides in England have had at least three goals, as have ten of Chelsea’s last 12 home UCL group games (7/12 at least four goals).
Dynamo’s only clean sheets in the Champions League since 2009 have come against Rubin Kazan and Maccabi Tel Aviv and considering Chelsea need to go for three points they will look to push forward so ‘overs’ seems the sensible option here.
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