Rubin Kazan v Liverpool
How much should we read into that win at Stamford Bridge is debatable though and Liverpool have generally proved fairly underwhelming on the road in recent years. It’s almost three years since they won away in Europe and they’ve lost five of their last eight away games on the continent while scoring just four goals.
They wouldn’t be the first team to struggle on a trip to Kazan though as the likes of Chelsea, Inter Milan and Spurs have all been defeated here in recent years while Barcelona also failed to win in two attempts. Their domestic form isn’t great this year but results have been improving and they have conceded only once in three home games in Europe this term. Furthermore, they’ve lost just four of 33 home matches in Europe since 2007/08 and with Liverpool likely to be more focused on the home game against Crystal Palace at the weekend the Russians look outstanding value to take something from this game.
Spurs v Anderlecht
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have won none of their last 12 European away matches. They’ve also had a modest away record of W3-D2-L2 in all competitions this season having also lost four of their final six away matches last term. They do tend to score on the road, however, and they’ve failed to net in just one of their last 18 away matches in all competitions with six of their last seven away defeats coming despite scoring.
Spurs have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 European games and five of their last seven home wins in the Europa League have come despite conceding, which throws up the home win with both teams to score option at 3/1 as an excellent looking bet. Furthermore, it also suggests that over-goals is a good option and 14 of Spurs’ last 17 home games in Europe have had at least three goals with eight having four or more. A best price of 1/1 on Over 2.5 Goals looks a cracking bet, particularly given Spurs have netted eight times in their past two games.
Harry Kane has scored four of those eight goals and with few alternatives he is likely to be the main man up front again. Now that he looks back on form and with the confidence of scoring seven times in Europe last season he looks good value to strike again tonight at 6/5.
Celtic v Molde
Things tend to go much better back in Glasgow though and they’ve won 14 of their last 18 European home matches where we have them as the higher ranked team in our gradings. Furthermore, they’ve won 16 of their last 18 home matches in all competitions, including 14 wins by more than one goal.
After a disappointing domestic campaign Molde have finished the Norwegian season in excellent form and have scored 16 goals in their last five games in all competitions. However, they’ve conceded in 13 of their last 14 away matches and have lost half their last eight road trips. Both teams look better going forward than at the back and with Celtic having to chase the win they may leave themselves exposed defensively. Four of Celtic’s last six home games in Europe have had at least four goals and Over 3.5 Goals is a tasty price at 19/10. However, Celtic’s home record is such that we expect them to claim the win they need but the value looks to be for them to do so with both teams scoring.