Four of Chelsea’s last six group stage away games have had fewer than three goals.
Chelsea picked up a vital win over Dynamo Kiev in their last Champions League game to leave them on seven points after four games, three points behind leaders Porto and two clear of the Ukrainians, while Maccabi are yet to pick up a point and have the worst goal difference in the competition at -10.
Indeed, all four of Maccabi’s defeats were by more than one goal and they also trailed at half-time in each of these losses. Their last involvement in the group stages of a European competition came in the 2013/14 Europa League where they had a decent W2-D2-L0 record at home, with the wins coming over Bordeaux and Frankfurt. We have Maccabi ranked 171st in Europe while Chelsea are 12th and since 2010/11 11 sides ranked outside the top-150 have hosted top-20 sides in the Champions League group stages and their record is W0-D4-L7, with six of these defeats by more than one goal and five to nil, though it was all-square at half-time in six of these games.
Chelsea’s Champions League group stage away record since 2013/14 is W4-D2-L2 including a defeat at Porto and a draw in Kiev this season. Their away record against sides ranked outside the top-100 in the Champions League since 2008/09 is a relatively poor W3-D3-L0 as four of these matches had fewer than three goals.
Four of Chelsea’s last six group stage away games have had fewer than three goals (three had fewer than two), and since six of the last 11 times a side ranked outside the top-150 has hosted a top-20 team in the Champions League group stages the game had fewer than three goals, we’re backing that to be the case again here as Chelsea don’t yet look ready to blow a side away on the road.
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