Despite being handed the toughest draw, Man City have the highest points tally of the English sides so far, topping Group D by a point from Juventus, who have a comfortable five point lead over Sevilla. Consequently, these two look set to go through and with that in mind this game looks crucial in determining who progresses as group winner.
After their slow start to the season, Juventus have won their last three in Serie A as they look to close in on Inter at the top of the table. They have a formidable home record in Europe, with a pair of losses against Bayern Munich the only defeats they’ve suffered in 42 matches since 2004/05. Since the start of last their record is W6-D2-L0 at home in the Champions League as they’ve kept five clean sheets in these games and five of these games also had fewer than three goals, with six being level at half-time. We have Man City ranked as the 7th best side in Europe and Juve’s home record against the top-15 since 2012/13 is W4-D4-L1, keeping four clean sheets and with five games having fewer than three goals.
After losing at home in their opening Champions League game against Juve, City have since won their last three, though they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet. As a result, both teams have scored in all four of their games and all four also saw at least three goals. City’s Champions League away record since 2013/14 is W6-D1-L3 with seven of these games having more than two goals. We have Juve ranked as the 5th best team in Europe but that is largely a reflection on last season’s team and they are not that strong now. City’s recent record on the road only features one ‘minnow’ in the shape of Viktoria Plzen and those three defeats came at Barcelona (twice) and Bayern and were by just one goal margins.
Given Juve’s incredibly strong home record and their apparent return to form in recent weeks, we wouldn’t put anyone off backing them at 27/20, but they are not the same team as last season and so are going to recommend backing the draw but with cover on the Juve win.
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