Liverpool v Bordeaux

Liverpool have picked up three draws and a win in the Europa League thus far and a home win over Bordeaux would be enough to see them through to the knockout stages. Bordeaux, meanwhile, have also drawn three in the Europa League this season but are yet to win and are five points adrift of group leaders FC Sion.

Liverpool’s Europa Leauge home record since 2009/10 is W10-D5-L1 and seven of the last nine of these games had fewer than three goals (five had fewer than two), as they kept a clean sheet in half these matches. We currently have Bordeaux ranked as the 93rd best side in Europe and Liverpool’s European home record against sides ranked between 63 and 123 since 2007/08 is W5-D2-L0 as they kept a clean sheet in five of these games and were also level at half-time in the last five of these.

Bordeaux have only won one of their 10 Europa League away games since 2012/13, losing half of these games, though they have drawn both of their away matches this season. Six of these games had fewer than three goals and they were behind at half-time in three of these five defeats. Bordeaux have travelled to England three times since 2006/07 and lost to nil and by at least three goals on each occasion and were also behind at half-time in each of these games. Liverpool, meanwhile, have won without conceding in five of their seven European home games against French opposition since 2004/05 and led at half-time in six of these games.

Bordeaux are without their suspended attacker Khazri, who’s scored four goals and contributed five assists in Ligue 1 already this season and since the start of last season they’ve scored 34% fewer goals in the 11 games he’s missed in the league. We can see Liverpool keeping a clean sheet in this game with Bordeaux’s best player missing and so are backing them to win to nil.

Liverpool to Win to Nil - 1pt @ 11/8

Celtic v Ajax

Celtic are currently propping up the Group A table having picked up just two points in their four games so far, while Ajax are only a point better off after drawing three of their four matches. Nonetheless Fenerbahce are only on five points in second, meaning that qualification is still a possibility for both these sides.

Celtic’s home record in the Europa League since the start of last season is a mixed W2-D2-L2 with both teams scoring in five of these six games and five also having at least three goals (half saw at least four strikes). We rank Ajax at 41st in Europe while Celtic are 68th and the Scots’ European home record when hosting sides ranked between 25th and 55th since 2007/08 is W3-D2-L2, with both teams scoring in six of these games and five having at least three goals.

Ajax have only won one of their 15 European away games since 2012/13, losing 10 of these games. Since the start of last season, when they competed in the Champions League, both teams have scored in four of their seven European away games as they only managed one clean sheet in this time. Their European away record against sides ranked between 48th and 88th since 2010/11 is W1-D1-L5 as they trailed at half-time in four of these five defeats and four of these seven games had at least three goals.

Celtic’s influential attacking midfielder Stefan Johansen is suspended for this game and without him Celtic’s win rate drops 18% in the league, which puts us off backing them to continue Ajax’s poor European away record. Instead, since both sides have to win here to have a chance of qualification and with Celtic’s European home games being full of goals in recent times, we’re expecting more of the same.

Over 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 5/6

Karabakh v Spurs

Spurs continue to impress this season as they put four past West Ham on the weekend to extend their unbeaten run in the league to 12 games. They also top their Europa League with seven points after four games, but that’s only three more than bottom of the table Karabakh in what is a hotly contested Group J.

Spurs have lost three of their last four Europa League away games though their away record in the competition since 2013/14 is a more impressive W4-D3-L4 as eight of these 11 games had fewer than three goals with at least one team failing to score in seven of them.

According to our gradings, Karabakh are the 128th best side in Europe and Spurs’ European record when travelling to sides ranked between 100th and 150th since 2006/07 is W5-D2-L1 as they led at half-time in four of these wins but only one was by more than one goal.

Karabakh have only lost two of their 15 European home games since 2013/14, though the majority of these were qualifiers. Since the start of last season, six of their 11 home games had fewer than two goals and there were a remarkable five 0-0’s in their last nine home matches. We have Spurs ranked as the 33rd best side in Europe at the moment and Karabakh have only hosted five sides ranked between 20th and 50th since 2010/11 and their record is W1-D3-L1 with three of these games having fewer than two goals, including a pair of goalless draws against Inter and Saint-Etienne last season.

Spurs have a vital Premier League game at the weekend, as they host Chelsea at lunchtime on Sunday, and the last thing that they’d have wanted ahead of that fixture would have been a trip to Azerbaijan. Indeed, Rose, Walker, and Dembele are all rested with the weekend in mind and as a result Spurs look a little short to us but we’re playing in the goals market in this one, backing Under 1.5 goals with Under 0.5 also worth a punt.

Under 1.5 Goals - 1pt @ 19/10