Chelsea’s soap opera of a season took another turn for the worse as they lost at home to Bournemouth on the weekend and they’re best chance of Champions League qualification for next term is increasingly looking like winning it this season. In order to so, they’ll have to get out of a group that three teams can qualify from at the moment. If Chelsea were to beat Mourinho’s former side then they’d qualify in top-spot, while a draw and a Kyiv home win over hapless Maccabi would see the Ukrainians top the group and Chelsea go through in second. Should Kyiv win and Chelsea lose, then Mourinho would have to make do with the Europa League, though that would surely be curtains for the Portuguese’s time in charge.
Chelsea have managed just one win in each month of the Premier League season so far but their Champions League form has been better as they’ve won three of their five games, with their only defeat coming away at Porto. Indeed, their Champions League home record since 2011/12 is W16-D3-L2 and they remarkably led at half-time in 18 of these matches with 14 having at least three goals and nine with at least four. Chelsea are currently the 12th best side in Europe according to our rankings (though they’re sliding down every week), whilst Porto are up in 8th and Chelsea’s Champions League home record against sides ranked between 5th and 15th since 2007/08 is a formidable W10-D2-L1 with seven of these wins without conceding, though both sides scored in five of the last six of these matches with half seeing at least four goals.
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Porto suffered a surprise defeat at home to Dynamo Kiev in their last Champions League game, their only defeat of the campaign in any competition, as they’ve beaten Maccabi twice and drew in Kiev. Their European away record since 2011/12 (they played in the Europa League knockout stages in 13/14 and 11/12) is W7-D7-L8, though they have scored in 13 of the 14 matches since 2013/14. Their away record against sides graded between 7th and 17th since 2008/09 is W3-D3-L2 as they found the net in seven of these eight games. Porto’s last league defeat came in January and they’ve now conceded just one goal in their last six in the Primeira Liga, while their last away defeat in any competition came in the knockout stages of last season’s Champions League at Bayern Munich.
Corona and Aboubakar are in good form at the moment and we except them to test what has been a very shaky Blues defence this season, with only the bottom-five in the Premier League conceding more goals. Chelsea are currently priced up at evens and are odds-on in places but we’d need much bigger than that to be tempted and so we simply have to side with Porto here at the prices to pile on the misery for Mourinho.
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