No side has scored at least three goals more often than Everton this season.
With Bournemouth and Newcastle winning last weekend Norwich are now just one point above the bottom three and following this game they travel to Man Utd and Spurs before hosting Aston Villa in their final game of 2015. So something from this match looks crucial if they don’t want the odds of 7/4 on their relegation to start tumbling.
The Canaries have won only once in their last 10 matches and their three wins this season have come against struggling Swansea, Bournemouth and Sunderland. They did manage a draw against Arsenal in their last home game but their form at Carrow Road hasn’t been great as they’ve lost three times and while they look to have made their defence more robust in the past six games it has come at the expense of their attack, which has scored just three times in this run. Excluding their matches against the current bottom six their record this season is just W0-D3-L7 and Everton are arguably playing better than their position of ninth suggests.
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The Toffees are unbeaten in five games and their only defeats this season have come against the two Manchester sides and Arsenal. In Romelu Lukaku they have a striker with as many goals from open play as Jamie Vardy, while only Mahrez and Wijnaldum have scored more times from midfield than Ross Barkley. Add in the six assists for Deulofeu – second only to Mesut Ozil and at a similar rate in terms of assists per minute – and it is easy to see the potential in this team. There is talent in the defence as well and since 2013/14 their record away to bottom-half teams is an impressive W11-D8-L2, while they’ve lost just one of their last 18 matches against promoted sides.
It’s a very similar picture to their recent trip to Bournemouth, when they led 2-0 at half-time and 3-2 after 95 minutes only to finish 3-3, and punters may wish to take the cover of the Draw No Bet at 4/5. However, such is Everton’s attacking potential we wouldn’t put anyone off going the direction and backing them to win by at least two clear goals at 4/1.
While Everton’s match outcome price looks one of the bets of the weekend, the Over 2.5 Goals market is also one to consider. No side has scored at least three goals more often than Everton this season while no team has kept fewer clean sheets than Norwich. Nine of Everton’s last 11 matches against promoted teams have had at least three goals, with seven having four or more, and despite the lower scoring of their recent matches both teams have scored in five of Norwich’s seven home games this season.
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