Swansea v Watford - Monday 20:00, Sky Sports 1

Swansea were victims of a poor refereeing display in midweek as they were beaten at home by Sunderland and have now slipped to just one point above the bottom three. Regardless of the refs part it was still another disappointing display from the Swans, who have won only two of their last 17 matches.

They do at least face a Watford side on their worst run of the campaign after three consecutive defeats. They are also unbeaten in their last 10 home matches against middle-third teams and in 10 at home against promoted sides since 2012/13, though those samples have seen six and five draws respectively.

Watford have been excellent against those teams currently in the bottom half as they’d gone unbeaten in 10 matches prior to their defeat at Southampton, which dropped their record in these games to W5-D5-L1. The worry for Hornets fans is that they might start to falter in the second half of the campaign having got to a position of relative safety. The record of middle-third promoted teams in recent seasons does suggest that might be the case as since 2010/11 these teams have faced 51 away matches against bottom-six sides and they’ve lost 49%, while if we just look at matches from January till the end of the season it increases to losing 52% of 25 games. It’s not a huge sample but it certainly suggests that Swansea offer some value here.

Nine of Swansea’s last 10 matches at home against middle-third teams have had fewer than three goals and given their scoring struggles – five blanks in their last nine at home – it looks set to be another tight and nervy affair. The price in the goals markets reflect this expectation but with Swansea being slightly underrated here it is worth noting that all their wins in those previous 10 game samples against middle-third and promoted teams came to nil, with seven of nine being either 1-0 or 2-0 scores. So we’ll put our faith in the boys from South Wales delivering all three points at a tasty price.

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Swansea Win and Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 4.5