MK Dons could cause a fourth-round FA Cup shock if Chelsea ring the changes.
Chelsea are the shortest price of any Premier League side travelling to a lower league team this weekend. It’s hard to make a good argument for that on the basis of this season though, particularly with some of the other top flight sides playing far weaker teams than MK Dons.
However, Chelsea are on the longest unbeaten streak in the Premier League and are yet to lose under Guus Hiddink. Not that they’ve been particularly convincing though, as they should have been beaten by Everton while Watford and West Brom have both picked up points at Stamford Bridge in that run.
MK Dons are hovering just above the drop zone in the Championship but while they’ve not won an away game since the opening day of the season they do tend to fare much better at home, where they’ve won four of their last five matches. Aside from a 5-0 thumping by Burnley earlier this month they’ve also been pretty solid defensively here, with just four goals conceded in their other seven home matches since the start of November.
Since 1992/93 there have been 246 FA Cup matches where Championship teams have hosted Premier League sides and the higher ranked side has won just 52% of the matches with 31% being drawn. Furthermore, the away team won by more than one goal just 28% of the time.
Chelsea are better than many of the Premier League sides in that sample while MK Dons are worse than a lot of the Championship teams but nevertheless it suggests the value is on the home team. And with the Blues facing a trip to Watford on Wednesday ahead of a game with Man Utd next weekend they will surely ring the changes for this one. In contrast this is one of the biggest matches MK Dons have faced since adopting their current name over 10 years ago, having reached the 5th Round just once since their move from south London. As such they look to have a great chance of causing this unconvincing Chelsea side a few problems and are well worth backing with a generous handicap.
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