Spurs to win at Norwich is one of eight Premier League bets in our Tuesday night round-up.
Arsenal v Southampton
Arsenal made a number of changes as they got past Burnley in the Cup on Saturday, including the welcome return of Alexis Sanchez and Francis Coquelin, and shouldn’t be too tired as they look for revenge against a Southampton side that thrashed them 4-0 on Boxing Day. The Saints had the weekend off entirely and are on a three game winning streak but they lost four of six trips to the top six last season and 5/6 the year before while they’ve lost two of three trips to the current top six this term. Arsenal, meanwhile, have won seven of their last nine at home and have won this fixture 1-0, 2-0 and 6-1 in the past three seasons respectively. Southampton’s defence has been excellent recently though and 10 of their 14 defeats since the start of last season have been by just one goal while the remainder have been by two, so the 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0 scores to the Gunners all appeal.
Leicester v Liverpool
Liverpool are suffering a severe fixture congestion problem and have given themselves another match next Tuesday after playing a side with little chance of winning in the Cup. With League Cup and Europa League commitments also this month we’ll surely continue to see inconsistent performances from the Reds, who started this fixture as even-money favourites last season but find themselves the outsiders on this occasion. And rightly so – they’ve lost five of their last nine trips to top-half teams while winning only once. In contrast, Leicester have lost just two of their last 18 home matches, and those were against Chelsea last term and Arsenal this, while winning 11 times.
Norwich v Spurs
Norwich’s early season problems in defence have resurfaced this month as they’ve conceded 11 in their last three games and are deep in trouble again. In contrast Spurs have been moving up the table and have scored 13 times during their current four game winning streak across all competitions. Furthermore, they are unbeaten on the road since the opening day and since 2012/13 have won 19 of 21 matches against promoted sides, including nine of 11 on the road.
Sunderland v Man City
Man City may well go on to win the title but they’ve been inconsistent this season and this is their lowest points tally at this stage since 2009/10, when they came fifth, so a trip to one of their bogey teams might not be as straightforward as it looks. Before winning here last season City had lost on four consecutive visits and their current away form reads just one win in eight. The Black Cats have conceded almost three goals per game on the road this season but at home things have been much better as they’ve conceded just nine times in their last 10 games. With City missing some important players in Vincent Kompany and Kevin de Bruyne we’ll just about side with the Mackems in what might be a tighter affair than expected.
West Ham v Aston Villa
Aston Villa suffered the latest setback in a season that will surely end in demotion as they were thrashed by Man City in the Cup and now have to pick themselves up for a trip to the capital. The Hammers are unbeaten in nine home games and have an impressive W8-D4-L1 record at home against bottom-six sides since 2013/14. All eight of those wins came with a clean sheet attached while six were by more than one goal, and as they continue to improve so might those stats. Villa, in contrast, have lost eight of their last 11 away matches and nine of their last 11 trips to top-half teams.
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth
Palace could struggle here with Cabaye picking up an injury at the weekend to join Bolasie, Sako and Wickham on the sidelines while Gayle is a doubt. However, Bournemouth were hardly impressive as they almost found themselves on the end of an upset at League Two neighbours Portsmouth. Palace have scored once in their last six matches while both teams have scored in just two of their last nine home games against bottom-half teams. Similarly both teams have netted in just two of the Cherries last six matches and this could well be settled by a single goal.
Man Utd v Stoke
Man Utd look a short price given they lead Stoke by just four points, and that’s after being 10 points ahead after six weeks. With only two wins in their last 10 matches, neither of which were particularly convincing, and having failed to score in half their last 10 home games it will surely require an improvement for the Red Devils to beat a Stoke side that they’ve struggled against in recent meetings. The Potters have lost only four of their last 13 away matches and while they’ve lost this fixture in each of the last seven seasons they won’t have faced a defence as vulnerable as the expected combination of Varela, Smalling, Blind and Borthwick-Jackson. If United want to win this game they will surely have to show more adventure than normal and that will expose this defence to Bojan, Arnautovic and Shaqiri, so Stoke look good value to pick up at least a point.
West Brom v Swansea
Only Villa have scored fewer goals this season than these two teams and this doesn’t look a game to get the pulse racing. Swansea have been level at half-time in 20 of 30 away matches since the start of last season and seven of their last 12 trips to bottom-half teams have been goalless at half-time. The Baggies have drawn the first half in 11 of their last 16 matches with their last four home games against bottom-half teams all being goalless at the break, so don’t expect too much action here.