Eight of Fiorentina’s last 12 European home games have had fewer than three goals.
Fiorentina finished runners-up behind Basel in Group I with 10 points as they lost two of their home games, against Lech Poznan and Basel themselves. They made it all the way to the semi-finals last season before they were well beaten by eventual winners Sevilla and they also made it to the Last-16 in 2013/14 before narrowly losing out to Juve. Spurs will be buoyant after their win at City on the weekend as they firmly established themselves in the title race and they were also impressive in the group stages of this competition as they won Group J ahead of Anderlecht and Monaco.
Fiorentina picked up an excellent league win of their own at the weekend as they beat Inter 2-1 at home to move up to third, though their recent home record in Europe is a slight concern. Since the start of last season they’re W4-D2-L4 at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, but there is a 2-0 win over Spurs in there at the same stage of the competition last term. That was their fifth European home tie against English opposition since 1999/2000 and they’re yet to concede a goal in any of these games, winning the last four 2-0. We have Fiorentina as the 28th best side in Europe while Spurs are slightly higher in 25th and Fiorentina’s European record hosting sides between 15th and 35th since 2007/08 is W2-D4-L1 with that defeat coming against Basel in this season’s group stages as these games have tended to be tight affairs with six of seven seeing fewer than three goals.
Spurs won their last three group stage games to win the group and continue their record of making the knockout stages in the last four seasons. They’ve made it to the next round twice in that time, beating Dnipro in 2013/14 and Inter in 2012/13. Their away record in Europa League last 16 and last 32 away ties since 2008/09 is W0-D2-L4 as they failed to score in each of these defeats and four of these games also had fewer than three goals. Spurs’ European away record against sides ranked between 23rd and 40th since 2010/11 is W0-D4-L3 as they once again failed to score in four of these matches and four also had fewer than three goals.
There is a chance that Spurs could rest the likes of Kane and Eriksen for this game and with that in mind we like the look of ‘unders’ in this game. Eight of Fiorentina’s last 12 European home games have had fewer than three goals, as have nine of Spurs’ last 13 on the road in Europe. Spurs have been the best side defensively in the Premier League this season, while Fiorentina have only conceded 24 goals in 25 games this term and so this could be a cagey affair.
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