Championship sides haven’t enjoyed much success in the FA Cup against Premier League teams since the start of last season as they’ve lost 11 of 14 home matches and since 1993 they’ve lost 52% of 250 such games while winning less than 17%. Lower league upsets have been particularly thin on the ground in the Cup this season as Premier League teams have gone W16-D5-L1, including W10-D2-L0 from the 3rd Round replays onwards.
So West Ham look a great price at odds against in this trip to a Blackburn side that are much closer to the drop zone than the play-offs in the second tier. Rovers look to be in decent form, however, as they’ve gone W3-D2-L1 in all competitions, although two of those wins were against Oxford Utd and Newport County in the Cup.
Instead, a more accurate reflection might be that in the past four months their home record has seen them win just twice in 10 attempts while failing to score five times. However, they’ve conceded just eight times in their last 13 matches at Ewood Park as home spectators have had entertainment on a par with that 20 miles south at Old Trafford this season. It’s certainly a far cry from their performances here against Swansea and Stoke in the Cup last season as they racked up seven goals in those two games before taking Liverpool to a replay in the 6th Round. The Hammers came through a dramatic extra-time win over Liverpool in the last round and they’ve scored just three times in their last nine away games in the Cup. They’ve not been challenging for Europe before though and this team has played some excellent stuff this season. They’ve won only once in their last 10 away games but there have been some decent draws in that run and they certainly haven’t been getting turned over or playing badly.
West Ham worked very hard to make it to this stage and they should be able to continue their excellent season by making it into the sixth round. Furthermore, against goal-shy Rovers, who have failed to score in eight of their last nine defeats, the win to nil looks a great price at 3.5.
Click here to find out more about Football Form Labs