A deflected Federico Bernardeschi shot meant that Spurs had to settle for a 1-1 draw in Florence last week, but they’ll certainly be happy with that result and the away goal after the likes of Kane, Walker, Dier and Rose were left on the bench. Since then, Spurs were knocked out of the FA Cup on Sunday by Palace, again with a side that wasn’t at full strength as Alderweireld and Eriksen were this time left out of the starting line-up as Pocchetino looks to keep his players fresh during this busy period.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, picked up a 3-2 win at Atalanta on Sunday in Serie A and the fact that their next league game is on Monday is a bonus as Pocchetino is likely to have one eye on Swansea on Sunday when it comes to picking his team for this one.
Spurs’ Europa League home record since 2011/12 is an impressive W15-D3-L2 and these games have tended to be full of goals with both teams scoring in 16 of these matches and 16 also seeing more than two goals. Their home record at this stage of the tournament since 2006/07 is W3-D3-L0, with both teams scoring in five of these matches, though only two had more than two goals as there were three 1-1 draws. We have Spurs as the 25th best team in Europe at the moment, while Fiorentina aren’t far behind in 28th and Spurs’ record when hosting teams between 18th and 38th in Europe since 2008/09 is W5-D2-L0 as they led at half time in each of these wins and three of them were without conceding.
Fiorentina have an excellent recent away record in the Europa League which reads W9-D5-L1 since 2013/14, with that sole defeat coming against last season’s winners Sevilla in the semi-finals. Nine of these 15 matches had more than two goals with both teams scoring in eight and they’ve led at the break in seven of their last 10. Fiorentina’s Europa League away record at sides ranked between 15th and 35th since 2007/08 is W2-D4-L1 and five of these games had fewer than three goals, including a 1-1 draw at White Hart Lane at this stage last season, though that was in the first leg.
The record of home teams in the second leg of Europa League last-32 ties when the first leg was a 1-1 draw since 2004/05 is W7-D5-L7 and that, together with Fiorentina’s excellent away record in Europe means that we’re taking on Spurs in this one. Paulo Sousa’s side are unbeaten in their last seven games in all competitions and we think they can continue that run here.
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