It's a big weekend of Premier League football and we've got the best bets from the 3pm KO's.
Leicester v Norwich
Norwich lost their last away game 2-0 at Aston Villa. They may not be in the relegation zone at the moment but they will be soon and they’ve lost eight of their last nine away matches and have conceded 18 times in their last six matches home and away. Leicester might have suffered a setback at Arsenal but they are still top of the table and six points from games with Liverpool, Man City and the Gunners is an excellent return by anyone’s measure. They’ve kept four consecutive clean sheets at home and can bounce back in style with a comfortable win here.
Southampton v Chelsea
Southampton have every chance of finishing fifth this season after a run of five wins in six during which they’ve not conceded a single goal. Chelsea thrashed Newcastle two weeks ago but that was as much to do with the Magpies incompetent defending as it was excellent play from the Blues and they followed that with a Champions League defeat in Paris before a flattering win against Man City’s Under 12s in the Cup. Chelsea’s record at the current top half this season is just W1-D3-L4 as they’ve scored only three times and they’ve still not won back-to-back league matches all season. The Saints have already thrashed Chelsea once this season and were unbeaten in both meetings last term. Furthermore, they’ve won six of their last eight home games against middle-third teams and should be able to punish this Chelsea defence.
Stoke v Aston Villa
Stoke have won four of their last five meetings with Aston Villa and you’d have to fancy them to make that five out of six. Villa have not won in 12 away days (three draws) and they’ve scored just four goals in the last nine, with their last six defeats all coming by more than one goal. Stoke haven’t been the most consistent of sides this term and their defence has been unusually vulnerable of late, which has contributed to Over 2.5 Goals landing in seven of their last eight matches. However, even if Villa can find the net the Potters will still expect to score more and since 2010/11, from the start of February to the end of the season, there have been Over 2.5 Goals in 59% of 91 games where a middle-third team has hosted a bottom-six side.
Watford v Bournemouth
Watford’s record against the current top six this season is just W0-D1-L8 but otherwise they are a very impressive W10-D5-L2 and while they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last nine matches they keep on wining. Bournemouth are very much in a relegation scrap after consecutive defeats but they’ve lost only one of their last seven away games and the only three times they’ve failed to find the net in their last 13 road trips have been at teams currently in the top six. Both teams have scored in four of the five league meetings between these teams since 2013/14 and we’d expect that to be the case again, but with Watford’s record this season we’ll take a punt on them to win with both teams to score.
Spurs v Swansea (Sunday)
With Arsenal travelling to Old Trafford at the same time as this game this could be a great chance for Spurs to open up a gap on the only side above them in the betting for the title. Spurs have now won five in a row and are the form side in the league but this might not be straightforward. Swansea have lost just one of their last five matches as they’ve not conceded more than a single goal in any of those games and have shown an improvement under Francesco Guidolin. Despite their struggles this term they’ve actually been excellent in the first half with the fifth best record in the league. Half the Swans matches this term have been level at the break, with seven of their last 10 on the road being goalless at the break. Spurs have drawn the first half in six of their last eight matches but while Swansea have faded in matches Spurs have just got stronger. Just one of their last six wins came after leading at half-time while seven of their last 12 home victories have been Draw/Spurs doubles.