This is just the fifth South Coast derby in all competitions between these two clubs this decade. Southampton have won all four previous matches by exactly two goals but there’s little to split both sides in the current betting here.
Bournemouth have played some attractive football this season but they’ve been constantly been overrated by the market. They’re a little fortunate that there are so many bad clubs in the division so they should be safe in their first ever Premier League campaign. They are currently five points clear of the drop-zone and they can’t really have too much to complain about as only the bottom-four have conceded more than their 44 in 27 so far. The Cherries have won just four of their 13 at Dean Court this season including going W1-D1-L4 hosting current top-10 opposition with no clean sheets in the six.
Southampton’s recent away form has been an eerily palindromic: WDWLLLLWDW. A, perhaps, more indicative trend is that six of the matches have been goalless at the interval, seven have finished with Under 2.5 Goals and six Under 1.5 Goals. Going back further, 60% of their league games under Koeman have featured Under 2.5 Goals and that jumps to a staggering 69% on the road. Delving further in we can see that a huge 13 of their 16 trips to bottom-half sides have had Under 2.5 Goals. Their 1X2 record in that sample is W5-D4-L7 and while a PPG of 1.19 isn’t terrible it’s enough to put us off backing them odds-on Draw No Bet.
Shane Long netted in Saints’ 2-1 loss against Chelsea at the weekend but the Irishman picked up a knock that’ll see him out for the next couple of weeks. Southampton are actually unbeaten in their last six without him but they’ve scored more than once just twice as all six were level at half-time.
Eight of Bournemouth’s last 13 Premier League games have been tied after 45 minutes and we expect Southampton to shut them out until at least half-time here. With a fair premium on the HT draw rather than Under 2.5 Goals we prefer the former here.
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