Chelsea exceeded expectations in Paris as they performed well throughout the game but nonetheless suffered a 2-1 defeat, with John Obi Mikel netting what could be a crucial away goal. Since that first leg, Chelsea have cruised past a weakened Man City side in the FA Cup, beaten Southampton and Norwich in the league, but were held to a 1-1 draw at home to Stoke on Saturday. PSG, meanwhile, suffered their first league defeat of their season, at Lyon, and were also held to a goalless draw at home to Montpellier at the weekend, though the likes of Ibrahimovic, Pastore and Luiz were all rested for that one.
Chelsea’s Champions League home record since 2008/09 is an impressive W26-D7-L4, as Atletico Madrid, Basel, Man Utd and Inter are the only sides to have won at the Bridge in this time. We have PSG ranked as the 4th best team in Europe and Chelsea’s home record against sides ranked in the top-10 since 2006/07 is W9-D4-L3, scoring in all but two of these games but managing just seven clean sheets. Indeed, the Blues have won six of the last eight of these games since 2011/12, leading at the break in each of these wins.
PSG’s Champions League away record since 2012/13 is W9-D3-L6, with the majority of their defeats coming against the bigger names in European football, whilst the highest ranked side they’ve beaten according to our rankings was Valencia back in 2013. Indeed, we have Chelsea ranked as the 10th best team in Europe and PSG’s away record at sides between 5th and 15th since 2012/13 is W1-D1-L3 as they’ve lost at Porto, Benfica and Chelsea in the 2013/14 quarter-final, whilst they managed a 1-1 draw at Chelsea last season at this stage of the competition.
The record of sides that lost the 1st away leg of a Champions League last 16 tie 2-1 is W5-D1-L3 in the return, though in the majority of these games the stronger side was playing away in the first leg. If we look at instances when higher graded sides won the first leg by a goal at home, their record in the second leg on the road is just W1-D1-L8 as they trailed at the break in six of these games and conceded at least twice in six. As a result, we’d certainly side with Chelsea Draw No Bet in this one at the prices, but the absence of Terry and Zouma is a concern. Zouma picked up his injury at home to United, who scored just two minutes after he was forced off and since then Chelsea have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six in all competitions and consequently we’re backing both teams to find the net in this one.
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