After going two games without a win for the first time this season Bayern bounced back to form in style at the weekend as they thrashed Werder Bremen 5-0. However, they’ll need to be at their best here against a Juventus side that keeps on winning.
Bayern have a clear advantage after their two away goals in the first leg and another draw will likely be enough to see them through. Since 2001/02 there have been 10 Champions League knockout second legs after a 2-2 draw in the first match. Eight of these games had fewer than three goals and five finished as either 1-1 or 0-0 draws.
For Juve to cause a shock they will have to do something pretty special and since the start of last season Bayern have won all nine of their UCL home matches with the only team to score twice here being Barcelona as they’ve kept six clean sheets. Inter Milan did win here at this stage, 3-2 in 2011, to overturn a first leg deficit against Louis van Gaal’s Bayern but that can probably be blamed on LvG and otherwise, since 2008/09, the Bavarians have won six of seven unbeaten matches at home against Italian opposition.
Mainz did the impossible and won here two weeks ago but Bayern have won their last 18 home matches across all competitions aside from that. Furthermore, in half those wins they scored at least four goals while in 12 they kept clean sheets as their domination has been complete. Juventus reached the final last season but they’ve won just four of their last 11 matches in the Champions League including only one of five on the road. Their form since the start of November has been spectacular but there have been a couple of slips on the road lately. A month ago they were held to a draw at Bologna and then a fortnight ago they were thrashed 3-0 at Inter in the Copa Italia (though they still advanced on penalties having won the first leg 3-0), while 2-0 wins at Frosinone and Atalanta were less comfortable than the scoreline suggests as late goals put a gloss on things.
Since 2004/05, there have been 58 UCL knockout matches where the home side was in the top five in our rankings and was hosting a lower ranked side that was still within the top 10. The home side has won 66% of these matches and lost just 12% while 12 of 13 draws were either 1-1 or 0-0.
We struggle to see Juve winning, or progressing, but while there are a few signs their attack is not in as good form as it was going into the first leg their defence has gone 10 Serie A games without conceding, and we expect them to try and keep things tight and hope to nick a goal along the way. However, a draw is fine for Bayern and as the onus inevitably shifts onto Juve to attack and take more risks they are bound to become vulnerable at the back. Bayern have won the second half in eight of nine UCL home matches since the start of last season and while defences might start on top we expect Bayern’s quality to prevail.
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