With Spurs having travelled to Anfield on Saturday it’s quite possible that a win here could send Leicester eight points clear. With just six games remaining. Even if Spurs have picked up the points against Liverpool a win here will go a long way to getting the Foxes over the line with a couple of relatively easy games up next.
Southampton won’t be an easy opponent though and they are not out of the race for fourth and certainly very much involved in the fight for a European spot after back to back wins before the international break. Leicester have won four of their last five matches but while Ranieri was offering incentives of pizza for clean sheets at the start of the season it is now the defence that is winning them matches while the attack struggles. They’ve scored just 17 goals in their last 14 matches and those last four wins have all been 1-0 as they’ve conceded just seven times in that stretch. In contrast, during their first 17 games they had 37 for and 24 against in terms of goals, and now seven of their last 11 home matches have had fewer than three goals with five having fewer than two.
The Foxes have been beaten just twice at home in their last 22 home games – by Chelsea last season and Arsenal this – and Bournemouth and Man City are the only teams to stop them scoring here this term, so we’d be surprised if they don’t get at least a point.
After a sticky patch in mid-season the Saints have won seven of their last 11 matches, including wins over Man Utd, West Ham and Liverpool. However, they still struggle for goals on the road, where only Villa, West Brom and Newcastle have scored fewer this term. Eight of their last 10 trips to top-eight teams have had fewer than three goals with six having no more than one strike.
Goals definitely looks the way to go in this one as with defences likely to be on top it could be a game decided by a few fine margins. So while we’ll avoid the match outcome the 1-0 Correct Score looks worth a punt at 7.5.
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