It's a bumper Saturday of Premier League action and we've got the best bets from the 3pm KO's.
Aston Villa v Bournemouth
Villa have the third lowest points total at this stage of a Premier League season and anything less than a win could see them officially relegated today. And it all started with a win at Bournemouth on the opening day. They’ve now lost their last seven games while scoring just twice, though with the Cherries virtually safe it’s almost the case that neither side has anything to play for. Bournemouth have conceded seven times in their last two games and six of their eight trips to bottom-half teams this term have had at least three goals while Villa might be keen to go down in flames so we’ll back ‘overs’.
Crystal Palace v Norwich
Palace have now gone 14 games without a league win and that means they sit uncomfortably just above Norwich. However, they are still seven points clear of danger and three points here should guarantee their safety and allow them to fully focus on the Cup. Back to back wins have lifted the Canaries clear of the drop zone but they’ve lost 10 of their last 12 away matches, including all five trips to the current bottom eight in that time – of which four were by more than one goal. Palace’s form is dire but they’ve shown their quality in the Cup and can take advantage of Norwich’s travel sickness.
Southampton v Newcastle
Newcastle have lost 19 of their last 22 away matches and were beaten 4-0 on their last trip to St Mary’s. Draws are no longer much help for the Toon so they will have to attack here and that means they are likely to be exposed defensively. They’ve scored in eight of their last 11 matches but one clean sheet in 16 has undermined that and seven of those last 11 have had at least three goals. Since 2010/11 60% of the 47 matches played from April till the end of the season where bottom-six teams have travelled to sides placed 4th-10th have had at least three goals and we expect more of the same here.
Swansea v Chelsea
Swansea’s decent run means they’re virtually safe while Chelsea’s improvement means they are now eyeing up seventh. The Swans lost this fixture 5-0 last season and have lost eight of 17 home games against top-half teams since the start of 2014/15. Chelsea thrashed Villa last week and have now won five of their last six away games. With Antonio Conte announced as their next manager the Blues players should be motivated to impress in the remaining weeks. Moreover, they’ve won 11 of their last 15 away matches against bottom-half teams.
Watford v Everton
The Hornets have lost their sting in recent months but their loss of league form is a trend shared by the other two confirmed FA Cup semi-finalists, Palace and their opponents here Everton. The Toffees have lost their last three matches but those were all against top-six teams and they do have some impressive stats on the road this season. Their only two away defeats have come at Arsenal and Man Utd while they are unbeaten in their last 10 trips to promoted teams. The goals have certainly dried up for Watford, with Odion Ighalo finding the net just once in their last 12 league games, and Everton should take advantage of that. However, their habit of outplaying sides and failing to take all three points means we’ll take some cover on the draw.