PSG might have felt they messed up their first leg but that is nothing compared to Real Madrid, who lost by two goals in Germany without even the consolation of an away goal. They bounced back with another easy home win in La Liga though and such is their scoring power back at the Bernabeu that it’s close to 50-50 whether they still go through.
The last team to try and overturn a two goal deficit in the Champions League knockout at home was Bayern last season when they won 6-1 having lost 3-1 in Portugal. Man Utd also managed the feat the year before while Barcelona thrashed Milan 4-0 in 2013 having lost the first leg 2-0 in the San Siro. So there is plenty of recent precedent and Wolfsburg are not the most formidable of opponents.
The Germans dropped more points at the weekend and are now winless in their last four Bundesliga matches. Moreover, their away form has been a weakness for several years and only one team in Germany has a worse record on the road this term. Furthermore, the record of German teams other than Bayern travelling to Spain’s Big Two since the start of the nineties is very poor indeed; these teams have lost 20 of 23 trips, including eight of nine knockout matches with seven defeats by at least two goals and four by three or more.
Wolfsburg scoring is key to their hopes of going through as that would mean Real need to find four. However, Real are yet to concede at home in Europe this season and Wolfsburg have managed just 11 goals in their 14 away matches in the Bundesliga – six of which came in their trips to the bottom two. Moreover, Real have scored 30 goals in their nine home UCL knockout matches since 2011 against teams outside the top five in our European rankings with six wins by at least three clear goals and two by two-goal margins.
Since the start of December Real Madrid’s home form reads W12-D0-L1 with 62 goals scored. That’s 4.77 goals per game as nine of the wins were by at least three goals and the one defeat was in the derby against Atletico. We expect Real to complete their comeback and an early goal could lead Wolfsburg to start panicking as they look for a goal of their own. However, rather than backing them in the ‘To Qualify’ market we just prefer the Asian Handicap with money back if Real only win by two goals.
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