Stoke were thumped last weekend and now look to have little to play for with European qualification unlikely at this stage. Spurs, meanwhile, were emphatic winners over Man Utd to keep the pressure up on Leicester although the mood in their camp could be very different depending on what has happened in the Foxes clash with West Ham on Sunday.
The Potters have won only one of their last five matches and that was against a Watford side in desperate form. Furthermore, Newcastle are the only one of their last 11 opponents that has failed to score against them and the league’s leading scorers will probably be relishing a go at this defence. However, it would be wrong to write off Stoke as they’ve proven at their best against the league’s top teams in recent years, particularly at the Britannia. Comparing teams last 10 home games against top-six teams and only Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea have better records than Stoke as Spurs are the only team to score more.
In the past two campaigns Stoke won five of their 12 home games against top-six finishers (W5-D3-L4) while this term they’ve drawn here with Leicester and Arsenal and beaten both Manchester sides.
Spurs have only lost twice on the road all season and they’ve won nine of their last 12 matches home or away. Furthermore, they’ve scored at least twice in nine of those 12 games and with no injury worries they can continue with their first choice XI. Given Stoke’s current defensive malaise, that is clearly not helped by the absence of Jack Butland and the fitness struggles of Ryan Shawcross, it would be a surprise if the Harry Kane-led Spurs attack fails to score and they’re unbeaten in 18 away games when finding the net (W11-D7-L0). Given they also own the league’s best defensive record that is perhaps not too surprising but at odds-on their price looks fair rather than a must-back given Stoke’s ability to raise their game, with the draw arguably a tastier bet.
Half of Spurs’ last 10 trips to middle-third teams have actually finished all-square and they were held to a 2-2 draw at the start of the season when these teams first met. That was an improvement on last season, when Stoke completed a double, but Spurs are unquestionably improving and danger-man Kane is in particularly good form having scored in five of his last six away games in the Premier League. At 2.2 to score anytime and 5.0 to score first, as he’s done in seven of their last 22 games, the England striker looks worth supporting.
Click here to find out more about Football Form Labs