We pick out the best value bets from the three Premier League 3pm Kick-offs on Saturday.
Aston Villa v Southampton
Southampton will feel they should have come away with all three points at Goodison last weekend and with other teams around them all winning mid-week they need to win almost all of their remaining games to have a chance of European qualification. To be fair, they couldn’t have asked for an easier opponent than Aston Villa whose ninth straight defeat confirmed last weekend what we already knew, that they would be playing Championship football next season. In that run of losses they’ve only managed to net three times and it looks unlikely that they will score here as only the top-three have conceded fewer away goals than Southampton this term. Last season the Saints won five and lost one of their matches against the relegated sides with four of those victories coming to nil. While under Koeman, against bottom-six opposition eight of their 11 wins have come without conceding as have seven of Villa’s last eight defeats to top-half opposition so we expect a comfy win for south-coast club.
Bournemouth v Chelsea
Chelsea were completely outclassed by Man City last weekend and it really highlighted their regression from last season. They sit 10th and despite having a very good away record against promoted sides - W6-D1-L1 since 2013/14 - you can’t bank on them to win here as two defeats in a row suggests some of their players have one eye on their summer plans already. 10 of the Blues’ 16 games under Hiddink have seen O2.5 goals as have eight of their 13 clashes with bottom-half opposition this term with seven seeing four or more strikes. Bournemouth’s last six games have all had at least three goals as have seven of their nine home games against the current top-half with all nine having at least two.
Liverpool v Newcastle
Rafa returns to Liverpool on the back of some positive results after beating Swansea and securing a valuable point against City to keep them alive in the relegation scrap. Liverpool, meanwhile, are flying under Klopp scoring 31 goals in their last 11 matches with seven victories. They’ve conceded 15 times in the 11 though and, as a result, all have seen at least two goals (nine Over 2.5 Goals and six Over 3.5 Goals).
Newcastle have started to show improvement under Benitez but their away form still makes for horrible reading this season going W2-D1-L14 on the road including nine defeats in a row, though they did win at White Hart Lane. Liverpool have a huge game in Europe mid-week so we expect Klopp to rest some key players especially with just two days rest from their 4-0 win in the Merseyside Derby, which could disrupt their free flowing form. In their five matches against the other bottom-six clubs at Anfield this season they’ve gone W2-D2-L1 with both victories by just a one goal margin, so with the Magpies scrapping for their Premier League lives we’re happy to back them with a head start.