Spurs lost their heads along with their chance of the title on Monday as they had nine players booked while Dembele, Lamela and Dier were all lucky to avoid early showers. Rose and Alderweireld are now injury doubts and with Dele Alli and Dembele banned they could be there for the taking for an in-form Saints team. Spurs still need three more points to guarantee second place but with Arsenal travelling to Man City later they may find that that is taken care for them, while Southampton are fighting for a Europa League spot.
Southampton have not had much joy against Spurs since returning to the Premier League as they’ve picked up just one point from seven meetings. However, a 4-2 thrashing over Man City last weekend was the latest in a string of fine performances that have seen them win five of their last seven matches. This run is despite failing to keep a clean sheet in 10 games as it’s been their attack that has led from the front, with Sadio Mane and Dusan Tadic in superb form. They’ve already won at Chelsea, Man Utd and drawn at Arsenal this term while they’ve beaten City, Arsenal and Liverpool at home so they shouldn’t be cowed by that head-to-head record.
It’s going to be tough for Spurs to pick themselves up after last week’s disappointment but they have lost just three times in 35 games so while we wouldn’t be backing them at odds-on they’re unlikely to just roll over now the title has gone. 10 of their last 15 matches have had at least three goals while four of their seven home games against teams currently placed 3rd-10th have had four or more strikes. With summer arriving and both sets of attackers in excellent form – Kane has scored nine times in Spurs’ last eight games and needs just two more to hit 30 for the season in all competitions – goals look likely.
Three of the five meetings between these teams since 2013/14 have actually had at least four goals and with Southampton likely to have more chances against a weakened Spurs outfit Over 3.5 Goals looks the best bet here.