Brazil got their tournament going with a 7-1 thumping against Haiti that sees them level with Peru on four points in Group B, though the fact that Ecuador play Haiti in their final game means that this is really a must-win game, something that Peru will be ruing as they let a 2 goal lead slip against Ecuador to draw 2-2. What’s more, Peru have a long journey across the country for this game from Glendale to Foxborough, while Brazil have a shorter trip up from Orlando.
Despite the absence of Neymar, Brazil continued their excellent scoring form against Haiti as they’ve now scored at least twice in five of their last six matches. Their record against sides they’re ranked between 17 and 37 places higher than is W15-D2-L1 since 2013 as they kept a clean sheet in nine of these wins and 10 were by more than one goal. What’s more, 11 of their 15 wins were W/W doubles.
Open an account with BETFRED and when you bet £10, you get £30!
Peru looked set for their fourth win in a row when they led 2-0 against Ecuador but a pair of goals either side of half-time cost them dearly and they were unable to capitalise on Ecuador being reduced to 10 men late in the game. Their record when playing sides ranked in the world’s top-15 is W0-D3-L9 since 2014 as they failed to score in half of these matches, including three of the last four. They were also behind at the break in four of the last five of these matches.
Brazil have won their last three matches against Peru going back to 2009 and were comfortable 3-0 winners against them in a World Cup qualification match back in November. Their excellent record against similar opposition means that we’re certainly siding with Dunga’s men in this one, with the win to nil , the HT/FT double and -1 on the Asian Handicap all making appeal. However, of those, the best bet looks to be backing Brazil to be ahead at both half-time and full-time since they’ve led at the break in nine of their last 10 wins, while Peru have been behind at half-time in four of their last six defeats.
Click here to find out more about Football Form Labs' Euro 2016 coverage