Russia v Slovakia - Wednesday 15th June, 14:00 BBC1

England were ahead in every key statistic in their opener against Russia but a 92nd minute equaliser meant the spoils were shared. That point against the group favourites should be enough to get Russia through to the knockout stages and they’ll be confident of a win here to all-but secure that progression. Slovakia also failed to impress in their opener and a loss against the team we have ranked as the worst in this pool means they’ve got an uphill task ahead of them if they are to reach the knockouts in their maiden Euro Championships.

We have 294 group stage matches in our database where the two sides were separated by 11-20 ranking spots and the favoured team have won just over half (149) of the fixtures while 57% of games had Under 2.5 Goals. Neither side played well in their opener but we rank England streets ahead of Wales so if forced we would side with Russia at 2.40. The standout bet though is for a lack of goals and Under 1.5 Goals at 3.10 appeals in particular. Correct score backers should keep 0-0 and 1-0 Russia on their side.

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Though England were on top against Russia, Roy Hodgson’s team didn’t create bundles of goal scoring opportunities and it’s perhaps not too surprising that the 1-1 draw marked Russia’s sixth consecutive Under 2.5 Goals Finals match. Slovakia are used to being unfancied in big games as this will be their 13th competitive international as the underdogs in our rankings this decade. They’ve lost half of the past 12 with eight matches featuring no more than a single score.

If pressed we fancy Russia more than Slovakia but Under 1.5 Goals at anything bigger than 2.80 has to be the play here.

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Under 1.5 Goals - 1pt @ 3.12