Peru stunned Brazil in their final group to knock Dunga’s men out of the tournament and secure top spot in Group B. As a reward, they make the short trip from Foxborough down to East Rutherford where they face Colombia, who had to settle for runners-up spot in Group A after they lost their final group game against Costa Rica. The Colombians have a longer journey up from Houston for this game, but they have had an extra day to prepare for this match.
Peru’s victory over Brazil was their fourth in five unbeaten games and it probably should have been five in five as they let a 2-0 goal lead slip against Ecuador in their second group match. However, the shock win over Brazil was the first time the Peruvians have beaten a side we have ranked in the world’s top-15 since they beat Ecuador in 2013, as they’d had a W0-D4-L12 record after that.
Jose Pekerman made wholesale changes for Colombia’s final group game against Costa Rica since qualification was already secured as the likes of Rodriguez, Bacca and Cuadrado were left on the bench. That defeat broke a sequence of five straight wins for the Colombians, but they continue to struggle defensively as they’ve managed just one clean sheet in their last nine matches. When playing teams they’re ranked between 16 and 36 places higher than, the Colombians are W17-D2-L2 since 2010, though they’ve only managed two clean sheets in the last seven of these matches, but they have led at the break in the last four of these games.
The higher ranked team has a W6-D5-L1 record in Copa America quarter-finals since the 2007 edition and given the strength of Colombia’s record against similar opposition, they look a reasonable price at 1.67. However, their vulnerable defence is a concern and instead the best play in this one looks to be backing both teams to find the net here. Peru have scored in their last five matches and in five of their last eight against the world’s top-15, while Colombia have scored in 21 of their last 23 matches against teams they’re ranked more than 10 places higher than.
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