Germany v Poland - Thursday 16th June, 20:00 ITV1

World Champions Germany continued their excellent recent record in major tournaments against Ukraine with their 2-0 win as they’re now W9-D3-L1 since the start of the last Euros. Poland, meanwhile, proved why their many people’s outsiders for this tournament against Northern Ireland, though they did have to work hard to break them down for their 1-0 win.

In truth the 2-0 scoreline flattered Germany somewhat as their second came very late on while the Ukrainians gave them some concerns defensively and Joachim Low will be hoping that Mats Hummels can return to the side for this one after injury. Indeed, they’d only managed one clean sheet in nine games ahead of the tournament and their record when playing teams ranked between 27 and 47th in the world since 2013 is just W2-D6-L2. They managed just two clean sheets in these games, with seven seeing more than two goals and six having more than three.

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Poland made it six wins in their last eight with the victory over Northern Ireland but Germany are certainly some way ahead of the teams that they’ve played in that time. However, Poland have a decent record when playing sides ranked in the world’s top-10 since 2011: W2-D4-L2 as they’ve managed some impressive results in this time, beating both finalists at the last World Cup. The Poles found the net in the two of these games that they lost, with both teams finding the net in five of these matches and half seeing more than two strikes.

Poland’s win over Germany came in qualification for this tournament and though the Germans exacted revenge with a 3-1 victory back in Frankfurt, that was the only time they’ve beaten Poland in their four meetings since 2011. This, together with Germany’s poor recent record against similar opposition type means they’re certainly worth taking on in this one at 1.59. The Poles have only lost one of their last 25 by more than one goal and as a result they look a solid play at 1.85 grid links +1 on the Asian Handicap. The concerns with German defensively means that Robert Lewandowski, who finished as the Bundesliga’s top scorer with 30 goals in 32 appearances and was also the top scorer in qualification, is certainly worth consideration at around 3.0 to score anytime.

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Poland +1 Asian Handicap - 1pt @ 1.85