Switzerland’s goalless draw against France in their final group game meant that they finished runners-up in Group A. Poland, meanwhile also finished runners-up with wins over Northern Ireland and Ukraine in Group C, together with a goalless draw against group winners Germany as they’re yet to conceded a goal in the tournament so far, but have only managed two themselves. Indeed, with the likes of Germany, Italy, Spain, France and England all in the other half of the draw, both these sides have in fact benefited from finishing second in their groups rather than winning them.
Switzerland themselves only conceded one goal in the group stages, a Romanian penalty, which is a marked improvement from the form they showed heading into the tournament where they failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their six friendlies. Their record against teams that are within 10 places either side of them according to our rankings is W3-D3-L4 since 2013 as they only managed three cleans sheets in these games and none in the last five.
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Poland have now kept a clean sheet in six of their last seven games and have only lost two of their last 23, against the Netherlands and World Champions Germany. Their record against teams that are ranked above them is W4-D6-L3 since 2014 and if we exclude top-five teams it’s W3-D4-L1 in the same period. Of slight concern for the Poles is the fact that star man Robert Lewandowski is yet to find the net, but with the opposition aware that he’s the main danger he’s been allowed very little space and has often turned provider for his strike partner Milik, who Polish fans will hope can be a bit sharper in front of goal in the knockout stages.
The Swiss’ sole victory in the groups came over Albania and teams that managed only one win in the group stages have a W2-D6-L6 record in Euro quarter-finals (previously the first knockout stage)since 1996 while teams that picked up more points in the groups are W7-D7-L2 in quarter-finals over the same period. There’s also a strong ‘unders’ trend in Euro quarter-finals, with 14 of the 20 since 1996 seeing fewer than three strikes and since all six of these teams’ games so far have had fewer than three goals, with five seeing fewer than two, we can expect more of the same here.
However, with the ‘unders’ price so short, the best play looks to be siding with Poland, given their excellent form and superior performance in the group stages. Furthermore, they could easily have come away with maximum points as they arguably had the better of the game with Germany and a similar performance should be too good for the Swiss here.
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