Mainz v Hoffenheim - Sunday 16:30, BT Sport 2
Mainz managed to finish 6th last term, their best result since 2011, and they proved competitive once again in their opener against Dortmund as they were only beaten 2-1. Hoffenheim drew their opener at home to Leipzig under their 29 year old manager Julian Nagelsmann, nicknamed the “Mini-Mourinho”, who impressed after taking over as coach in February as he steered them clear of danger.
Mainz only lost five times at home last term, with two of those coming against Dortmund and Bayern, but they managed to beat three of the rest of the top five, and backing them at home would have resulted in a 29% profit. However, they’ve come unstuck somewhat when hosting sides between 9th and 15th in the last couple of seasons as they had a W4-D4-L5 record in these games, as they operate better when playing on the counter against the top teams and struggle to break down sides that sit back against them.
That, together with the fact that Hoffenheim have lost only three of their last 10 meetings with Mainz means that we’re taking on Martin Schmidt’s side here at around the even money mark and are going to back Hoffenheim or Draw Double Chance .