FC Koln v Freiburg - Friday 19:30, BT Sport ESPN
Koln have had a solid couple of seasons in the Bundesliga after promotion, finishing 12th and 9th last term while they’ve also had a good start to the season with four points from their opening two as they’re yet to concede a goal. Freiburg bounced straight back up from the 2.Bundesliga last term and though they lost their opener at Hertha Berlin, they came from behind to beat Monchengladbach 3-1 at home last time and with the experienced Christian Streich at the helm, they look to have a good chance of staying up this time around.
While Koln were the lowest scoring side in the top 10 last term, their defence excelled and they were an ‘unders’ backer's dream as 62% of their matches had fewer than three goals and 32% had fewer than two. However, they were in fact better on the road than at home last term as they excelled when playing on the counter rather than having to force the issue at home. Indeed, they’ve won only three of their 17 home games against bottom-half finishers in the last couple of seasons, with nine draws in these games.
What’s more, in Streich’s 121 Bundesliga matches in charge of Freiburg they’ve been relative draw specialists and backing the stalemate would have resulted in a healthy profit, thanks largely to their solid defence, as much like Koln their games have tended to be low-scoring.
As a result, we’re going to back the draw here, while Under 2.5 Goals looks an excellent bet at even money and we wouldn’t put anyone off having a punt on the 0-0 correct score, as Koln have served up that scoreline in three of their last five games now.