Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg - Saturday 17:30, BT Sport Europe
It’s been a poor start to the season for Bremen, who have lost all four of their games, though they’ve gotten a couple of tough fixtures out of the way as they’ve already gone to Bayern and Monchengladbach. Wolfsburg, meanwhile, were going along nicely as they hadn’t conceded a goal in their first three, but they shipped five at home to a rampant Dortmund on Tuesday night.
Defence continues to be a problem for Bremen, who have already leaked 14 goals, having had the worst and second worst defence in the league in the last two seasons. Their home record since the start of last term is W5-D5-L9 as three of those wins came in their final three at home last season to help them stay in the division. They’ve managed just one clean sheet in this time, with both teams netting in 13 of the last 14.
Indeed, Wolfsburg have kept just four clean sheets in their last 12 on the road, and have lost four of their seven trips to bottom-six sides since the start of last season, with four of these games seeing more than three goals. After letting in five in midweek and with Bremen also as leaky in defence as ever, we’re going to back Over 3.5 goals