Monaco (2) v Villarreal (1) - Tuesday 19:45, BT Sport Extra
It’s probably too early to start the ‘club in crisis’ calls but Villarreal are certainly a side who’d prefer to still be on their summer break. After sacking their manager a week before the campaign started they’ve now got a full blown injury crisis as they look to overturn a first leg deficit.
They’ll have to score at least twice to have any chance but despite their high league finish last season they still averaged less than one goal per game on the road. Furthermore, they’ve failed to win any of their last six away matches, during pre-season and at Granada in their league opener, while failing to score three times, so look unlikely comeback kings here. Those chances are further hampered by the absence of their best two strikers, Roberto Soldado and Cedric Bakambu, and also key winger Denis Cheryshev.
Monaco have a couple of problems up front themselves, with Falcao and Vagner Love injured, but are otherwise in good shape and are coming off a good away win in Ligue 1 despite resting most of the team that’ll start this one.
History is certainly on their side. Since the 1999/00 season there have been 115 Champions League qualifying round second legs where the home side had a one-goal advantage from the first leg. These teams have won 70% of second legs (losing just 13%) and while the away side might be expected to chase the game 57% have still had fewer than three goals. We expect Monaco to dictate the play and ultimately sink the Yellow Submarine but they’ll be perfectly happy to settle for a draw and so the better play is to back a home clean sheet given Villarreal’s problems in attack.