Real have lost just twice at home in the Champions League since 2011/12
Real Madrid v Tottenham - Tuesday 19:45, BT Sport 2
The two Group H sides with 100% records clash here and a win would really stamp Real’s authority on the group having already won at Dortmund. After a slow start in the league, Los Blancos look to have hit their stride and will be boosted by the return of Benzema. Real are W31-D4-L2 at home in the Champions League since 2011/12 and since they’ve won eight of 13 since 2015/16 by more than one goal, we’re backing the reigning champions to cover the -1 handicap.
Real Madrid are of course a significant step up in class from domestic duties but it’s worth noting that seven of Spurs’ 10 matches against the top six in the Premier League last term had Under 2.5 Goals and just one had more than three strikes. The last three times English sides have travelled to the Bernabeu there have been just four goals combined and there is a suggestion that with Ronaldo perhaps not as lethal as he once was, and Gareth Bale injured, Real are not quite at their best going forward right now.
The ‘unders’ certainly looks the value option, with Under 3.5 landing in 12 of Real’s 16 Champions League home matches against teams from the Big 5 leagues since 2013/14, and Under 2.5 the result in seven.
Without Benzema and Ronaldo in the early part of the season it’s a pair of youngsters that have taken centre stage for Real in the shape of Isco and Marcos Asensio. The former dazzled at the Bernabeu for Spain last month as he netted a brace against Italy. He also found the net twice in Real’s 2-0 win over Espanyol in their last game there and we’re backing him to be the first goalscorer.