Burton v Brighton - Saturday 15:00

At what point Burton get the respect they deserve for consistently holding their own at this level is anyone’s guess. The season is seven games old now and the Brewers have given as good as they’ve got in every match but the layers continue to dismiss them as nailed-on bottom-six material when the early shot data (53 per cent shot ratio) suggests they are anything but.

Their fearless approach might only have yielded two wins but curiously both were at home against teams who finished in the top six last season. Take the 14/5 about Nigel Clough’s men completing the set with another home win, sending Brighton back to the south coast with their tails between their legs, just as they did to Sheffield Wednesday and Derby.

Claim NowNew customer offer - £20 MATCHED BET

Brighton, of course, have fewer hang-ups than either the Owls or the Rams. The Seagulls edged out early leaders Huddersfield at the Amex in midweek, the perfect response to successive defeats against Newcastle and Brentford. However, a frenetic encounter at the Pirelli could expose a lack of understanding between their new centre back parternship of Shane Duffy and Lewis Dunk.

Matches involving Burton have averaged 3.29 goals, while Brighton played out a 2-2 draw - falling behind twice - as favourites at Reading last month, so a bet on Burton to win 3-1 at the mouthwatering price of 40/1 and might not be quite as outrageous as it first appears. The market has the total goals line at 2.22, my ratings say 2.48 with the 3-1 scoreline no bigger than 30s.

Click here for a free trial of Mike Holden’s shot-based ratings system

Burton to win - 1pt @ 14/5
Burton 3-1 correct score - 1pt @ 40/1