In a difficult game to call, a dip into the First Goalscorer market could prove profitable.
Burton v Birmingham - Friday 19:45, Sky Sports 1
David Cotterill opened his account for the season with a late penalty that sealed a 4-2 win against Rotherham in midweek - and it might just have given him a taste of what he’s been missing. Back the Welshman in the first goalscorer market at 11/1. He isn’t particularly prolific but he does possess the quality to break the deadlock in tight encounters such as this.
The 28-year-old winger has made 75 starts for Blues, scoring 14 times in total and never twice in the same game. So implied odds of 5.33 suggest there’s no real value in the 17/4 anytime quote but when you consider that ten of those goals have been scored in the first half and nine of them have been the opener (implied odds of around 7/1), then the bells and buzzers start ringing.
This isn’t an easy game to call. On top of the sentiment around Gary Rowett returning to his former club, there’s a suspicion that Blues might have gone slightly off the boil compared to the standards they were setting a month ago. They played 4-4-2 against the Millers and scored four goals but Rowett evidently wasn’t satisfied with certain aspects of the performance.
Nonetheless, you could argue the 90-minute prices should be the other way around. Burton have been competitive in every match this season but they lack the cutting-edge quality to punish teams when they are on top and that might only become more apparent as the season progresses. In terms of end product, Cotterill is probably the outstanding player on the pitch.