Huddersfield v Wigan - Monday 19:45, Sky Sports 1
David Wagner changed Huddersfield’s system at Cardiff last weekend, switching from the usual 4-2-3-1 to match the Bluebirds with three at the back, but it was to no avail as the Terriers suffered their fourth defeat in six matches, conceding three times in the opening 32 minutes. With confidence brittle, the draw looks a confident play at 5/2 against a dour Wigan side.
The Yorkshire club were like a machine in the first two months, squeezing 25 points from a fairly ordinary +0.37 expected goals supremacy across the first 11 matches. But their high-octane pressing game was always liable to ease-up against the gruelling Championship schedule and suddenly the fine margins are going against them.
Over the past five matches, Huddersfield have conceded a dozen goals - eight of them from set pieces - and their performance here could be a little too preoccupied with keeping the back door shut. If so, they should fancy their chances of keeping a clean sheet. Wigan have scored just four goals in their last ten outings and they average just 3.3 shots on target per match.
Based on shot data since the start of September, this match has an astonishingly low total goals expectancy of just 1.46, giving the no goalscorer bet obvious appeal at 15/2. But with new Latics boss Warren Joyce injecting fresh ideas, we should brace ourselves for more goals if the deadlock is broken, which is why the stalemate is preferred to low goals as the staple.£10 Free Credit and a £500 Deposit Bonus