Derby v Wolves - Saturday 15.00
Derby have had the upper hand over Wolves in recent times as they won both meetings last term and there have generally been goals when these two have met in the last two seasons as all four games have seen both score, with an average of 4.5 goals per game.
However, Derby have lost a lot of goals with the departure of Tom Ince while they’ve strengthened their defence with the signings of Curtis Davies, Andre Wisdom and Tom Huddlestone. Meanwhile, Wolves have a new boss in the shape of Nuno Espirito Santo and he’s been given money to spend. Most of that has gone on fixing the defence, with their standout acquisition being defensive midfielder Ruben Neves for £16m. Santo is very much in the ‘Mourinho’ mold and it did the job in week one as they beat Middlesbrough 1-0. Furthermore, Wolves’ final four pre-season matches saw just four goals in total and Under 1.5 Goals is well worth a punt.
Derby started slowly at home last term as they picked up only two points from their first five games but since then they’ve lost just one of 18 on their own patch, winning 11 of these. However, they should face a much stiffer task here as the Wanderers have been busy in the transfer window. Derby, on the other hand, have sold two of their best performers in Will Hughes and Ince and since Wolves were in fact better on their travels than they were at home last term, we think they can cause an upset. We’re backing them to win, as they did eight times on the road last term while for more conservative punters they is the Draw No Bet option.
Santo’s Porto side kept 10 away clean sheets last season and he looks to have Wolves very well organised already. With Derby’s attack much weaker the 1-0 Wolves win looks a huge price.