Barnsley v Aston Villa – Saturday 17:30, Sky Sports
Tuesday night was another disappointing one for Villa as they failed to take advantage of their man’s advantage in a nil-nil draw with Boro. That makes it three draws on the spin for Steve Bruce’s side but there was at least one positive as Jonathan Kodija returned from a long spell on the sidelines. Barnsley also drew in midweek but they are looking for a third consecutive home win. Mind you they’re not generally prolific winners at home as they’ve taken maximum points from just five of their last 23 here. 11 of those games have finished all-square as they’ve at least proven hard to break down and with Villa’s problems in front of goal – they’ve scored just 16 times in 26 away matches since the start of last season – we fancy another stalemate.Bet £10 get £20!
Villa have won only four of their 26 away matches since the start of last season and their lack of goals has led to Under 2.5 Goals landing in 73% of these matches. That included in nine of their 11 trips to teams that finished below them last term and while Kodija returned to action in midweek it’ll be a while before the striker regains full match sharpness. With Barnsley having ‘unders’ in eight of their last 11 home matches that looks a great value bet.
Villa have had 12 1-1s since the start of last season while Barnsley have had six in their last 19 matches. Those ratios suggest plenty of value in this market so for a longer priced punt it’s worth a few quid backing the correct score.