Burton v Liverpool - Tuesday 19:45, Sky Sports 1
Like many good bets, the case for backing under 2.5 goals in this game started with a natural instinct that it's bound to produce over 2.5 goals. Then you see the price, realise everyone else is thinking along the same lines and you wonder whether you can justify doing the opposite. You can. Moreover, once you fancy low goals, then backing the draw at nearly 5/1 becomes a no-brainer.
Burton have played five matches this season and those games have produced 23 goals, an average of 4.6 per game. Liverpool have played twice and those games have produced nine goals, 4.5 per game. All except one of those seven matches combined have finished over 2.5 goals but the one that didn’t is perhaps the most relevant.
Burnley beat Jurgen Klopp’s men 2-0 just three days ago with the lowest possession figure of any winning Premier League team for more than a decade, allowing Liverpool to have the ball for 81 per cent of the encounter. If Nigel Clough has got any sense, he will have studied that game and will be using it as a blueprint.
The Brewers are used to playing as underdogs but whereas they appear to taking the game to opponents in the Championship, they are evidently fearless of the consequences. Against this class of opposition, though, the consequences could be dire and should temper the enthusiasm to throw bodies forward.