Ajax v Man United - Wednesday 19:45, BT Sport 2

Ajax were pushed hard in their semi-final triumph over Lyon, with the French side almost overturning a 4-1 deficit from the first leg, though Peter Bosz’s men were able to hold out for a 5-4 aggregate victory. Their form in front of goal has been excellent recently, though despite scoring 21 goals in their last six in the Eredivisie we’re not expecting a goal-fest here, with seven of their last eight Europa League games before their chaotic clashes with Lyon featuring fewer than three goals.

Man Utd’s path to the final has been built on fine margins, with each of their last seven in this competition ending either 1-0 or 1-1, and whilst they’ve won six of 10 unbeaten games, four of the last six finished a goal apiece. Their fans are no doubt accustomed to such results under Mourinho by now, with the Red Devils seeing two goals or fewer in seven of their last eight in the Prem. However, despite winning only once in their last six domestically, Man Utd should have the edge here with key players having been rested and more experience than Ajax’s youngsters.

18 of the last 22 Champions League or Europa League finals have been won by the side we have ranked higher in our grading system, and of course here that’s Man Utd. What’s more, Jose Mourinho has a special record in major cup finals throughout his career, winning 11 of 13 in total, with eight of these games featuring fewer than three goals over the 90 minutes. Given Mourinho’s approach to the big games, together with the fact that Ajax have lost three of their last six across all competitions, we’re backing the 1-0 correct score, though it may be worth taking some cover on the draw at 3.6 given Utd’s high number of stalemates this term.

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Man Utd Correct Score - 1pt @ 6.5