England v Brazil - Tuesday 20:00, ITV
There were encouraging signs for England in their goalless draw with World Champions Germany, but with the likes of Kroos and Muller not featuring they arguably face a tougher test here as they host the second favourites for Russia next year.Bet £10 get £40
The Three Lions have won 17 of their last 20 at Wembley but they generally struggle when hosting elite opposition as they’re W1-D2-L3 over their last six home friendlies against teams that we have ranked in the world’s top-10, failing to score in half of these. With that in mind, we’re siding with Brazil at what looks a fair price.
Brazil’s record since Tite took over is an impressive W13-D2-L1 with that defeat coming against Argentina in Melbourne without Neymar, whilst on the road they’ve won six of eight unbeaten games under his tutelage – covering the -1 handicap in each of these victories. Kane and Alli, arguably England’s two best players, are out but Brazil are close to full strength with the likes of Jesus, Coutinho and Neymar all set to feature.
However, since 2014 they’ve played 11 friendlies against top-20 ranked sides and while they’ve won nine times five have been 1-0, while nine of the matches had fewer than three goals. So although England don’t possess much cutting edge themselves with their injury problems and will have their work cut out dealing with that attacking threat we’re backing Brazil to win narrowly with a one goal margin.
All the attention will be on Neymar, but Gabriel Jesus has impressed ever since he joined Man City and is set to be rewarded with a new contract soon according to reports. He netted a brace in Brazil’s final qualifier against Chile and followed up with another goal in their win last week over Japan. He has two braces for City already this term and we’re backing him to open the scoring in what could be a low scoring affair.