Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao – Sunday 19:45, Sky Sports 1

After three consecutive draws, Real Madrid have bounced back in emphatic style, scoring 11 goals in successive victories over Real Betis and Legia Warsaw. They’re now unbeaten in 24 in all competitions and are a short price to extend that run as Athletic Bilbao come to town.

Bilbao are in good form having won five of their last six league matches to move up to 6th, but traditionally the Basque club travel very poorly to the league’s top teams. They’ve gone W0-D1-L11 on the road versus the ‘Big Three’ since 2012/13 and they’ve also lost their last 23 trips to Barca and Real, despite finding the net in 15 of these. In the latest eight of these, Athletic have conceded an average of 4 goals per game, while their last seven visits to the Bernabeu have finished 4-2, 5-0, 3-1, 5-1, 4-1, 5-1, 5-1.

On this basis, the 3.28 available on over 3.5 home team goals looks the standout here. Bilbao themselves have been in good scoring form, netting 11 in their last five so we’re backing Real to Win and Both Teams to Score as Los Blancos have failed to keep a clean sheet at home this season and have Sergio Ramos and defensive midfielder Casemiro sidelined. As a side bet we’ll also have a punt on the 4-1 correct score at 15.0.

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Real Madrid Over 3.5 Goals - 1pt @ 3.28
Real Madrid to Win & BTTS - 1pt @ 2.38
Real Madrid 4-1 Correct Score - 1pt @ 15.0