Peterborough v Bury - Saturday 12:30, Sky Sports 1

A five-match winning streak had Bury fans dreaming about promotion at the end of September but excitement has been tempered over the past fortnight. David Flitcroft was forced to admit the better team lost in the 3-1 win away at MK Dons, then the result told its own story in the top-of-the-table clash against Scunthorpe last weekend.

But the shot data so far suggests the Shakers should be in the thick of the play-off hunt this term, providing they can field something approaching their best 11 most weeks. Sadly, that won’t be the case here. Central midfielders Tom Soares and Jacob Mellis are both suspended, while Danny Mayor and James Vaughan are carrying injuries, the details of which are rather vague.

So the match betting is a bit of a minefield and best given a wide berth until the line-ups have been announced. Instead, let’s switch our attention from who to how many. My ratings have the total goals expectancy at 3.21, whereas the market says 2.86, meaning there’s ample value in the 17/10 available on over 3.5 goals.

With Soares and Mellis absent, and Peterborough hardly renowned for exerting a vice-like grip in the middle of the park, this could be a field day for the flair players on both sides. Potentially, we might be looking at five or six players on the pitch capable of running the opposition ragged. On second thoughts, throw in a bet on over 4.5 goals as well.

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Over 3.5 goals - 1pt @ 17/10
Over 4.5 goals - 1pt @ 17/4