A narrow Fleetwood win looks worth a wager in Sunday's televised League One play-off.
Fleetwood v Bradford - Sunday 18:30, Sky Sports 1
Bradford take a deserved 1-0 lead across the Pennines after subjecting Fleetwood to a first-half onslaught in Thursday’s first leg at Valley Parade. Uwe Rosler’s men managed to get through to half time unscathed but the cumulative effects caught up with them later on as they let their guard slip and allowed Rory McArdle to head the only goal from a set piece.
However, the market appears to have over-reacted to the Bantams’ dominance in that game. They set a tempo that would be tough enough to replicate just three days later, never mind without the backing of a partisan 15,000 crowd. The Yorkshire club have been been allocated just 1,100 tickets for the return game, so don’t expect the action to follow the same pattern.
The onus is on Fleetwood now and while their approach might be more patient than passionate, they do have enough nous to take the tie to extra time. The Fleetwood 1-0 correct score appeals at 15/2 because a breakthrough for the Cod Army at any stage could be followed by a sustained period of stasis, whereby both teams respect the likelihood of the next goal being decisive.
Highbury is accustomed to low-scoring encounters. Eight of the last 13 matches played there have finished under 1.5 goals, including each of the last four. One exception was Fleetwood’s come from behind win over Bradford in February. If they could overcome a one-goal deficit in 45 minutes that night, then cancelling one out over 90 is well within their capabilities.