Crawley v Luton - Saturday 15:00
Crawley are many people’s idea of the worst team in League Two, while Luton are reportedly up their with the best. But that in itself doesn’t mean a great deal and the layers appear to be running scared of the accumulator money in quoting the visitors at a general 4/6. Instead, make them pay with a single and back the home win at a whopping 9/2.
The Hatters might be third in the table and fourth in shot data rankings but there’s a significant caveat to that in terms of the schedule. Ten of their 13 points have been accumulated against bottom-five opposition and only one of their seven matches - the 2-1 home defeat to Grimsby last weekend - has been against a top-half team in terms of shot data.
The Mariners were worthy winners at Kenilworth Road, leaving Nathan Jones to bemoan the lack of instensity from his men. But maybe everybody has got a little bit carried away with the Bedfordshire club. They were popular in the ante-post markets and much of what they’ve done up to this point lends to confirmation bias.
No manager did more summer transfer business than Dermot Drummy with 20 new arrivals at Broadfield Stadium and that takes time to gel. But the hosts have scored the opening goal in six of their nine matches and there’s additional value in the 15/1 available on the Crawley 1-0 correct score. All three of their victories up to this point have been achieved by that scoreline.