Crewe v Plymouth - Saturday 15:00
Crewe’s record with and without Alex Kiwomya remains one of the more astonishing stats in League Two. The Railwaymen have now scored 21 goals in 889 minutes (excluding Checkatrade Trophy matches) when he is on the field, compared with just four goals in 791 minutes when he isn’t - that’s roughly one goal every 40 minutes compared to one every three hours and 17 minutes.
So it’s fair to say the Cheshire club have a chance with the Chelsea loanee available for the visit of leaders Plymouth this weekend. The trend is more than just a coincidence. With two strikers aged 30 and 38, and all other midfield options fancying themselves as ball players, Kiwomya’s electric pace adds another dimension, enabling the whole team to get up the pitch quicker.
Plymouth might be four points clear at the top and 11 points ahead of fourth-placed Luton but that only adds weight to the suspicion that their bubble might be about to burst. Their shot ratio (55.9 per cent) is good - certainly good enough for automatic promotion - but you’d expect much better from a team that has collected 35 points from the last available 39.
It’s mostly thanks to Derek Adams, a very shrewd game-by-game tactician at this level, but Argyle are best at exploiting weaknesses when the opposition come on to them but they could be waiting all day for Crewe to over-commit. Take the 12/5 about the home win and back the 2-0 correct score at 17/1, reflecting their goals expectancy if Kiwomya plays the 90.£10 Free Credit and a £500 Deposit Bonus