Accrington v Stevenage - Saturday 15:00

The congested nature of the League Two table appears to have caught the layers napping here. Just two points separate these two teams, with Accrington 11th and Stevenage 19th. Too many assumptions, it seems, are being made based on what happened last season, which is a novelty for Accrington - they spent two-thirds of 2015/16 chalked-up as mid-table mediocrity.

The Lancashire minnows have threatened in flashes to mount another promotion challenge and they have gone about their business like a sophomore, demanding respect from the freshers. After 16 matches, though, we can safely say they are a pale shadow of the team they were last season. Over the past two months, Stevenage actually boast the better shot ratio.

So let’s back the away win at 3/1, it’s no bigger than 5/2 on my tissue. Inconsistency has plagued Darren Sarll’s men for much of this campaign but with recent results masked by home defeats to Plymouth and Carlisle, it’s an issue they might actually be addressing. On their last two away trips, they have triumphed at Morecambe and Mansfield in business-like fashion.

Bizarrely, Accrington beaten Doncaster, Portsmouth and Blackpool but John Coleman conceded they were lucky in each instance. Aside from that, they’ve been turned over by Exeter, Morecambe and Newport at the Wham Stadium. With a total goals expectancy of just 2.04, the Stevenage 1-0 correct score is also worth an interest at 12/1.

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Stevenage to win - 1pt @ 3/1
Stevenage 1-0 correct score - 1pt @ 12/1