Lille v Monaco - Friday 19:45, BT Sport ESPN
Lille won their opener 3-0 against Nantes but since then they’ve picked up just two points from their last five games and scored just one goal. They lost all of their home games against top-four opponents last term and since Monaco are W9-D2-L1 when travelling to bottom-half opposition since the start of last term, the champions look a fair price at 1.73. Six of their nine wins against these opponents were by more than one goal and since they’ve shown no signs of struggling in front of goal despite the departures of Bernardo Silva and Kylian Mbappe, with Falcao netting nine goals already, we’re backing Monaco to cover the -1 handicap.
Montpellier v PSG - Saturday 16:00
Montpellier had the third worst defensive record in Ligue 1 last term but with Michael Der Zakarian coming in as manager, they’ve certainly tightened up – in his three Ligue 1 seasons in charge of Nantes between 2013/14 and 2015/16 their 114 games averaged just 2.0 goals per game. Four of their six games have seen fewer than two goals as with Steve Mounie joining Huddersfield, they’ve struggled for goals themselves. They managed some impressive home results against the top teams last term as they beat PSG and held Nice to a draw and we think they can be similarly competitive here. PSG were made to work for their latest win, with the first goal in their 2-0 win over Lyon coming after 75 minutes and with the Neymar-Cavani rift ongoing, we don’t expect them to put up a big number. We wouldn’t put anyone off siding with Montpellier on the handicap but we’re going to make Under 3.5 Goals our best bet.
Marseille v Toulouse- Sunday 20:00, BT Sport 2
Marseille had a +20 goal difference at home last season as Monaco and PSG were the only teams to beat them, but they’ve struggled at the Orange Velodrome this term as after beating Dijon in their opener, they were held to a draw by Angers and beaten by Rennes last time out there. Toulouse have already gone to Monaco and PSG this term and while they were well-beaten at PSG, they lost by just a single goal at Monaco and certainly know how to make themselves tough to beat on their travels. Nine of their away matches last term had fewer than two goals with five finishing goalless, including at PSG and Marseille, and so we think they can pick up another point here.