Southampton v Swansea - Sunday 14:15

Southampton were a little unlucky against Arsenal, conceding a dubious late penalty to succumb to defeat. Shane Long fluffed his lines once more, missing two glorious chances. His removal from the starting line-up shows how inefficient he has been in front of goal, and his introduction into the game hinted at the desperate situation up top for Southampton right now. Nathan Redmond’s pace continues to be a threat but the end product is still missing as Dusan Tadic appears to be the only real danger man in this team.

Swansea were handed a huge slice of luck against Chelsea, having been dominated for an hour before Leroy Fer somehow got away with kicking lumps out of Gary Cahill’s calves. Francesco Guidolin continues to baffle with his selections, opting for a strange back five and midfield diamond against Chelsea that made his side too open and saw them carved to pieces. It was noticeable that Swansea improved after switching to a traditional back four late in the first half, with Modou Barrow coming off the bench to inject some pace into the team. Swansea fans will be dismayed if the Gambian winger is amongst the substitutes again.

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While we expect Southampton’s lack of squad depth to be exposed as the season goes on, they were at home against Sparta Prague this week and it is still early in the campaign, so the lack of options shouldn’t hit them too hard just yet. Claude Puel is still searching for his first win but Southampton’s head to head record against Swansea will give him encouragement, with the Saints only losing once in their eight encounters since Swansea were promoted in 2012.

In what is a difficult game to call, we think the value lies in a narrow Saints victory so we’re going to back Southampton Win and Under 2.5 Goals.

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Southampton Win and Under 2.5 Goals - 1pt @ 3.9